Gold – pulled both ways at the same time

Gold is trading around $4,510 today, down from $4,580 earlier this week. The price rose on Monday on US-Iran peace-deal hopes, then dropped on Tuesday after the US hit Iranian missile sites. Now it sits in the middle of the range, waiting for the next headline.

Why gold could fall: A real US-Iran deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil drops. Inflation eases. The Fed has less reason to raise rates. Safe-asset demand fades. The technical signal on Investing.com is now "Strong Sell".

Why gold could rise: The deal isn't signed yet. The US is still hitting Iranian targets. The new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is seen as more hawkish than Powell — and a hawkish Fed without peace is good for gold. China's central bank has bought gold every month for 17 months in a row.

Right now the market is taking the sell side. But every time the deal looks weak, gold bounces back. Expect sharp moves in both directions this week.

Key levels:

• Resistance: $4,580 (this week's high), then $4,600 and $4,650
• Support: $4,500 (psychological), then $4,450 and $4,400

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