Gold – up, down, or sideways?

Gold has remained relatively stable within the 4,400–4,900 range and hasn't been significantly influenced by the rally in U.S. and global equity indices during April and May. It also appears to have lost some of its safe-haven appeal during the escalation of the Iran conflict.

From a fundamental perspective, we see limited upside potential given the factors mentioned above. Downside risks appear to prevail, as any deterioration in risk appetite could trigger at least a short-term correction across asset classes.

Upside scenario

We view 4,550 as the first strong resistance level, followed by further resistance around the 4,600 and 4,650 areas.

Downside scenario

The 4,450 level could be tested, with further support at 4,400 and 4,300. These levels may come into focus quickly if downside momentum accelerates.

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