Gold – today's US jobs yeport is the big test

A few days ago, we looked at why gold wasn't rising even with a war and high inflation. The short answer was interest rates. High rates make gold less attractive because gold itself pays no interest. Today brings the next test of that theory.

Today, the US releases its monthly jobs report—the most watched data of the month. The forecast is roughly 105,000 new jobs with unemployment near 4.3%. Gold is trading around $4,460 before the release.

Here's how to read it. Strong numbers mean the economy is healthy, which gives the Fed reason to keep rates high. High rates weigh on gold, so a strong report would likely push it down. A weak number does the opposite. It opens the door to lower rates later, and that usually helps gold.

So today's direction leans on one number. Watch the first move, but also watch wage growth in the same report because that feeds inflation and can flip the reaction within minutes.

Key levels:

• Resistance: $4,580, then $4,650 and $4,700
• Support: $4,450 and $4,400

Watching: the US jobs report this afternoon, the wage growth figure inside it, and how the dollar reacts.

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