EUR/USD – the Euro just hit a one-year low, and today's data could push it lower

EUR/USD has fallen to around 1.1360, its lowest level in a year. The driver is a resurgent US dollar. After the Fed (Federal Reserve) signaled potential rate hikes this year, capital has flowed into the dollar, and the euro has slipped against it.

There's a twist. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its own rates just two weeks ago — a move that typically lifts a currency. But it hasn't helped the euro, because dollar strength is simply overwhelming everything else right now.

Today brings the next test. The US releases the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) report — the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely. Forecasts point to a hot reading, partly due to an earlier spike in energy prices. If inflation comes in high, it reinforces the case for more rate hikes and a stronger dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower still. If it comes in soft, the euro could bounce as pressure on the dollar eases.

EUR/USD key levels:

• Resistance: 1.1450, then 1.1550.
• Support: 1.1350, then 1.1260.

Watching: today's US PCE report, US rate-hike expectations, and dollar dynamics.

Risk Disclaimer: All research and/or forecasts above reflect the author's personal opinion and cannot be treated as trading advice. Born2trade is not responsible for any trading results based on any information in this article. Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose all of your invested funds. Forex and CFD trading may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

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